A man shows his ace only when its purpose is to make him look unbeatable. His opponents will consider the risk of loss to be greater than the chance of winning. He can use that ace to bluff the game. If he were to use that ace as a secret weapon, he would hide it under all circumstances.
Such is the assessment of Putin's placement of Russia's nuclear forces on special alert. By making a spectacle of it, he is hoping to deter his Western adversaries from placing additional sanctions on Russia and sending aid to Ukraine. He hopes the West will fold in the face of uncertain risk. If Putin planned to use his nuclear forces, however, it would be smarter to prepare them in secret to avoid escalation. Yet, the situation has been escalated and the risk for a possible nuclear standoff is higher than it has been for decades. Such is the dilemma of Vladimir Putin's announcement, do we fold or call his bluff?
The West should not fold but instead calmly call Putin's bluff, without instigating escalation. By calling his bluff, the West can reduce the weight his ace has in geopolitical dealings. If his ace is just an 8, it is less threatening but still formidable. Putin should not be able to use nuclear devastation as a deterrent to military intervention. The West must make sure he understands that.
Let's suppose Putin uses his ace. If Putin is first in using nuclear weapons, unprecedented retaliation from the rest of the world would bring about devastating outcomes for his country and its people. Mutually-Assured-Destruction (MAD) would be inevitable as the nukes are already flying, world leaders have little to lose. It would be irrational for Putin to go through with nuclear warfare. However, that is exactly what many experts claimed about the possibility that Putin would invade Ukraine.
For months, while Russia deployed some 190,000 forces on the border with Ukraine, analysts and experts voiced how absurd an invasion would be. The negative risks that Putin and his people would face far outweighed the potential gains, of which there are few. Even as Western leaders came together like they hadn't since the Cold War, Putin went on with his invasion and is now bearing the costs of defiance and war.
The same can be applied to Putin's nuclear declaration. Russia's placement of nuclear forces on special alert allows the deployment of hundreds of warheads in unison. Normally, Russian nuclear armaments are separate and can only be launched one by one. By placing them on special alert, their wires are connected and are ready for annihilation. It would still be absurd, however, for Putin to launch the A-bombs but he and Russia are increasingly isolated and the failure of Russia's initial assault on Ukraine has quickly damaged his pride. Such is the result of an authoritarian regime. Putin can claim all the victories, but must also bear the bitter defeats.
Russia's isolation on the world stage shows its weakness. While China initially supported Russia in asserting its territorial claims and stood in solidarity with Putin against the West, in a joint statement, it is closely watching the conflict. China is hoping to gauge how Russia's attack on Ukraine may transpose itself to a possible conflict between itself and Taiwan. China's nuclear armaments are in consideration, with approximately 200 atomic weapons in current possession, China is expected to reach 1,000 by 2030.
If Putin loses his war or fails to reach any significant objectives to use in negotiation, the 69-year-old leader will be backed into a corner. Only at that point, his entire reputation and pride will be on the line. A man's pride is a sensitive object and any damage to it can be dangerous. If that pride is backed by nuclear weapons, it can be catastrophic.
Putin wants to declare Russia a competent global superpower, but the world's 11th largest economy has a long way to go. Competent superpowers shouldn't toy with nuclear apocalypse. Competent superpowers don't rest on one man's pride. If Putin wants to preserve his pride, he should pull out of Ukraine or negotiate a ceasefire. Using a nuclear button as his ace won't save Putin. There is no button big enough to hide behind and no ace strong enough to protect Putin's pride.
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